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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."